How to manage volatility

The IMF moved Lithuania from the list of emerging markets to the list of mature economies. (CC By NC ND World Bank)

How Poland improved its position in ranks.

Russians are afraid of US rates.

The IMF moved Lithuania from the list of emerging markets to the list of mature economies.

Audi opens its Logistics base in Hungary.

 

Poland

After Polish Gazeta Wyborcza sum up the lat 8 years of economy under Civic Platform’s party rule emphasising that the country improved its position in international ranks, I decided to check, how does it look like with some other CEE countries. In Doing Business rank Poland climbed from 72nd  in 2010 do 32nd place in 2015. Czech Republic started from 74th place in 2010, then improved its regulations and business environment and climbed in 2011 to 63rd, but after that – abandoned the path. In 2014 Hungary’s position was 75. Now (2015) it’s 44. The situation of Hungary has worsen since 2010 (from 47th place to 54th). Estonia and Lithuania are getting better and better.

Doing Business: Ease of doing business ranking

 year

Poland

Czech Republic

Hungary

Estonia

Lithuania

2015

32

44

54

17

24

2014

45

75

54

22

17

2013

55

65

54

21

27

2012

62

64

51

24

27

2011

70

63

46

17

23

2010

72

74

47

24

26

Regarding the level of corruption, the leaders of improvements are Poland and Lithuania. As the table below shows, Czech Republic, Hungary and Estonia still cope with the problem. Let us just remember the most recent business scandals in Estonia (corruption in Port Talin and unjustified expenditures in Eesti Energia).

Transparency international: Corruption Perceptions Index

 Year

Poland

Czech Republic

Hungary

Estonia

Lithuania

2015

b/d

b/d

b/d

b/d

b/d

2014

35/ 61 p.

53/ 51 p.

47/ 54 p.

26/ 69 p.

39/ 58 p.

2013

38/ 60 p.

57/ 48 p.

47/ 54 p.

28/ 68 p.

43/ 57 p.

2012

41/ 58 p.

54/ 49 p.

46/ 55 p.

32/ 64 p.

48/ 54 p.

2011

41/ 5,5 p.

57/ 4,4 p.

54/ 4,6 p.

29/ 6,4 p.

50/ 4,8 p.

2010

41/ 5,3 p.

53/ 4,6 p.

50/ 4,7 p.

26/ 6,5 p.

46/ 5,0 p.

2005

74/ 3,4 p.

47/ 4,3 p.

40/ 5,0 p.

27/ 6,4 p.

44/ 4,8 p.

(Sources: DoingBusiness.com, Transparency International)

Russia

After Sofia withdrew from South Stream Project, we had months of confusion. Nothing was known. There were plans of the alternative Turkish Stream, but negotiations between Ankara and Moscow lasted long. And finally they reached an agreement.

The first of four planned lines of a pipeline would be built between Turkey and Russia – announced the deputy head of Gazprom, Alexander Medvedev.

And what about the other three lines? Medvedev said that it is the question of European’s demand, how many lines would be built. But the European (except from Hungary and Czech Republic) countries still didn’t express their will participation in deliveries via Turkish Stream, not to mention about estimating it.

>>More about

Russians are afraid of US rates

It is very hard to plan something in terms of overwhelming volatility of markets and changing landscapes of global economy. Just have a look at Russians. They cannot plan budget for three years ahead and they do not know how much gas would flow via Turkish Stream.  And it’s all Americans (and Europeans) fault.

American Fed is supposed to rise the record-low interest rates in the nearest future. Russians are afraid of the impact of a rate hike to the global trade and prices. The Financial Times claim it may be the key reason of why Russian officials don’t want to draw long-term plans for their economy.

After the Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev announced, that the government would like to prepare only one-year budget instead of three-years budget, it was said that it’s because of the volatility of oil prices and rouble exchange rate.

But the real problem that lies behind his announcement is American dollar. If US interest rates rise, dollar would go stronger and that would cause more difficulties for Russians to rebuilt their international reserves. The reserves amounted to USD 500bn before crisis are now only USD 364bn.

>>More

Lithuania

Good news for Lithuania. The International Monetary Fund moved Lithuania from the list of emerging markets to the list of mature economies. The IMF classifies a country’s economy analysing its GDP per capita index, export diversification and its degree of integration into the global financial system. Lithuania’s GDP is supposed to grow by 2,8% by the end of 2015 and 3,2% in 2016 (compared to the Eurozone GDP growth rates: 1,5 % and 1,6 %).

The country ha salso good 28th position in the World Competitiveness Rating that consists of 144 countries. And is the number 1 in CEE region.

>>Read more

Bulgaria

Bulgaria’s industrial production index dipped by a preliminary 0.7% month-on-month in July, the country’s statistical office NSI said on Tuesday, citing seasonally adjusted figures.

The industrial production index rose by 3.4% on the year in July 2015 adjusted for the number of working days, the NSI said in a monthly statistical report.

In July 2015 as compared to June 2015, the industrial production index decreased in themining and quarrying industry by 3.0%, in the energy supply by 0.9% and in the manufacturing sector by 0.4%.

>>See more

Hungary

Audi opens its Logistics base in Hungary. The project worth HUF 10 bn is the second logistic center of the German carmaker. It is placed in Győr, northwestern Hungary. The ceremony of opening tok place on September 8th. It is said that thanks to it, some 500 new jobs would be created at nearest future and twice as much in the long term. The revenue of Audi Hungaria exceeded EUR 4147 bln in January to June 2015, up EUR 435m from a year earlier.

>>More

Share this post

TOP