Ukraine's GDP gains momentum
Slovakia’s A+ rating confirmed
In Bulgaria unemployment rate drops to 8 per cent in Q2’16
The Polish Radio reports after the Central Statistical Office (GUS) that Polish GDP growth in Q2’16 was 3.1 per cent. This is slightly below the 3.3 per cent expected by economists.
The Deputy Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that the data is encouraging and the weaker growth was due to mistakes made by the previous government of Civic Platform when preparing investment plans for 2016.
The Polish Radio quotes some economists commenting the results. Professor Tomasz Gruszecki claims still “3.8 percent growth [in 2016] is possible but […] I would rather bet on 3.4 percent, maximum 3.5 percent.” Małgorzata Starczewska-Krzysztoszek, chief economist of Lewiatan is dissapointed “the rate of GDP growth in the first half of the year is worrying, it will not be possible to reach 3.8 per cent growth this year as is forecast in the government’s budget.”
State Statistics Service of Ukraine informs the country’s real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in Q2’16 by 1.3 per cent y/y. In Q1’16 it grew only 0.1 per cent y/y.
According to live data, the GDP increased 0.6 per cent q/q in Q2’16 and 0.7 per cent in Q1’16. “Ukraine’s GDP last year fell by 9.9 per cent, although the rate of decline y/y was steadily falling: in the first quarter the figure stood at 17 per cent, in the second quarter at 14.7 per cent, in the third quarter at 7.2 per cent, and in the fourth quarter at 1.4 per cent,” Interfax writes.
The National Bank and the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade downgraded their forecast for GDP in 2016 from 2 per cent to 1-1.1 per cent.
Fitch Rating Agency confirmed Slovakia’s A+ rating. The positive factors supporting Fitch’s decision are: growth acceleration, improvements in fiscal position and a decline in the deficit.
The company informed it expects the country’s GDP will grow more than 3 per cent by 2018 and that this is due to strong domestic consumption fueled by an improving labor market.
Slovak Spectator reports Fitch also expects the fiscal position of Slovakia to improve: public finance deficit is expected to decrease to 1.6 per cent of GDP by 2018, as the tax revenues will increase thanks to accelerated economic growth.
Public debt will fall along with a decline in the deficit and in combination with economic growth.
“A positive scenario for the rating’s outlook would especially be a better-than-expected fiscal position and higher GDP growth. By contrast, a risk factor for the outlook and preservation of the rating would be a sudden shock for the economy from outside, which would strongly impact the automotive sector,” the Slovak Spectator writes.
As the data from the National Statistical Institute (NSI) shows the unemployment falls in Bulgaria. In Q2’16 the rate was 8.0 per cent, dropping by 1.9 percentage points (pp) compared to the same period of 2015.
Novinite.com informs in Q2’16 there were 1.43 million economically inactive persons aged 15 – 64 in the country, accounting for 30.6 per cent of the population in that age group in the period.
The number of discouraged persons within the group of economically inactive persons aged 15 – 64 decreased by 6,800, reaching 158,900.
The employment rate for people aged 15 – 64 was 63.7 per cent. So it grew by 1.3 pp compared with Q2’15. There were 3.03 million employed persons aged 15 years and over during the second quarter of 2016, of whom 1.60 million men and 1.43 million women.
What’s up in indexes
BUX (of Budapest) was up 0.08 per cent d/d – increasing from 27502.22 index points Wednesday, August 10th to 27524.41 index points Thursday, August 11th. So it’s up 15.07 per cent.
BET (of Bucharest Stock Exchange) decreased from 6834.61 index points Thursday, August 11th to 6789.05 index points Friday, August 12th. So it dropped by 0.67 per cent d/d and dropped by 3.04 per cent from year-end.
PX (of Prague Stock Exchange) dropped by 0.30 per cent – falling from 863.87 index points Friday, August 12th to 861.30 index points Monday, August 15th. From year-end it dropped by 9.94 per cent.
Warsaw Stock Exchange was closed Monday, August 15th. On Friday, August 15th WIG20 (of Warsaw) ended with 1857.70 index points. It was down 0.38 per cent compared with Thursday’s result (1864.70 index points). From year-end it was down 0.08 per cent.
OMXT (of Tallinn) increased from 991.86 index points Friday, August 12th to 1004.43 index points Monday, August 15th. So it’s up 1.27 per cent d/d. From year-end it’s up 11.73 per cent.
OMXR (of Riga) dropped by 0.21 per cent – falling from 636.30 index points Friday, August 12th to 634.97 index points Monday, August 15th. From year-end it’s up 6.83 per cent.
The bourse of Vilnius was closed Monday, August 15th. OMXV (of Vilnius) dropped by 0.64 per cent Friday, August 12th – falling from 538.60 index points Thursday, August 11th to 535.14 index points. From year-end it’s up 10.11 per cent.
SAX (of Bratislava) increased from 314.50 index points Friday, August 12th to 320.30 index points Monday, August 15th. So it’s up 1.84 per cent d/d. From year-end it’s up 9.56 per cent.
SOFIX (of Sofia) was up 0.60 per cent d/d and up 0.20 per cent from year-end. It increased from 459.04 index points Friday, August 12th to 461.81 index points Monday, August 15th.
UX (of Kyiv) decreased from 693.03 index points Friday, August 12th to 687.85 index points Monday, August 15th. So it dropped by 0.75 per cent d/d. From year-end it’s up 0.29 per cent.
CROBEX (of Zagreb) increased by 0.20 per cent d/d – from 1782.81 index points Thursday, August 11th to 1786.31 index points Friday, August 12th. From year-end it’s up 5.72 per cent.