Russian experts warns of economic downturn in 2019

(Tom Thiel, CC BY 2.0)

OECD concerned over corruption in Hungary

In Romania number of tourists decreased

Russia

“Considering the current economic policy (tight fiscal policy and stringent monetary policy) and a weak effect of National Projects, a technical recession may be seen in the Russian economy as early as in 2019, instead of 2021 projected by the Economic Development Ministry,” Stolypin Growth Economic Institute informed on Monday. Experts believe that so far the growth was only reported by large enterprises and the public sector as the analysis of the SMEs demonstrates a decline in economic activity in Russia.

Many economists have reviewed their forecasts for Russia’s economic growth since June 2019. The Central Bank of Russia has downgraded its 2019 GDP growth plan from 1.2-1.7 per cent to 1-1.5 per cent, while the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have lowered Russia’s economic growth estimate to 1.2 per cent.

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Hungary

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is concerned that Hungary has not commenced any foreign bribery investigations or prosecutions in over nine years. The OECD said that companies operating in the country have significant exposure to export-related risks of foreign public officials bribery. This includes foreign subsidiaries of multinational enterprises that use Hungary as a manufacturing base and re-export goods to other markets.

“Hungary should therefore significantly enhance enforcement of its foreign bribery offence against corporate vehicles, including foreign subsidiaries, by increasing the resources to manage the current and forecasted foreign bribery caseload,” OECD said.

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Romania

The number of tourists in Romanian hotels in the H1’19 decreased by 4.4 per cent y/y, to 5.26 million. “The contraction would have been sharper without the holiday vouchers”, Romania Insider website stressed.

The number of foreign tourists reported by local accommodation facilities plunged by 15.9 per cent y/y in the period (to 1.27 million), in contrast to the more moderate 0.9 per cent decline in the number of Romanian tourists (to 3.99 million), as data from the National Statistics Institute shows.

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What’s up in indexes

BET (of Bucharest) decreased from 9068.90 index points Friday, August 2nd to 9023.49 index points Monday, August 5th. It’s down 0.54 per cent d/d and up 10.2 per cent y/y.

BUX (of Budapest) decreased from 40309.61 index points Friday, August 2nd to 39896.00 index points Monday, August 5th. It’s down 1.03 per cent d/d and up 7.08 per cent y/y.

OMXR (of Riga) decreased from 1043.33 index points Friday, August 2nd to 1040.93 index points Monday, August 5th. It’s down 0.23 per cent d/d and up 1.93 per cent y/y.

OMXT (of Tallinn) increased from 1264.71 index points Friday, August 2nd to 1265.35 index points Monday, August 5th. It’s up 0.05 per cent d/d and up 0.58 per cent y/y.

OMXV (of Vilnius) increased from 694.58 index points Friday, August 2nd to 695.29 index points Monday, August 5th. It’s up 0.10 per cent d/d and down 2.58 per cent y/y.

PX (of Prague) decreased from 1040.37 index points Friday, August 2nd to 1025.54 index points Monday, August 5th. It’s down 1.43 per cent d/d and down 5.96 per cent y/y.

RTS (of Moscow) decreased from 1293.19 index points Friday, August 2nd to 1282.29 index points Monday, August 5th. It’s down 0.84 per cent d/d and up 12.6 per cent y/y.

SAX (of Bratislava) decreased from 345.27 index points Friday, August 2nd to 344.80 index points Monday, August 5th. It’s down 0.14 per cent d/d and up 8.51 per cent y/y.

SOFIX (of Sofia) increased from 580.08 index points Friday, August 2nd to 581.30 index points Monday, August 5th. It’s up 0.21 per cent d/d and down 9.09 per cent y/y.

UX (of Kyiv) increased from 1583.93 index points Friday, August 2nd to 1619.90 index points Monday, August 5th. It’s up 2.27 per cent d/d and down 1.54 per cent y/y.

WIG20 (of Warsaw) decreased from 2216.51 index points Friday, August 2nd to 2164.14 index points Monday, August 5th. It’s down 2.36 per cent d/d and down 5.74 per cent y/y.

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