World Bank cuts Romania’s economic growth forecast

Banca Transilvania, one of the leading banking institutions in Romania (banlon1964, CC BY-NC-ND)

Ukraine’s inflation falls to 9.8 per cent y/y in 2018

Bulgaria's GDP Growth to Speed up according to independent experts

Romania

The World Bank has revised downwards its forecast for Romania’s economy, both for this year and for the following two years. According to the latest Global Economic Prospects report this is due to large domestic vulnerabilities the country is facing – because of its large current account and fiscal deficits.
In June 2018, the World Bank estimated that Romania’s GDP would grow by 4.5 per cent in 2019 and by 4.1 per cent in 2020.  In the most recent report, the pace of growth predicted is only 3.5 per cent in 2019, and a 3.1 per cent in 2020.

The World Bank expects this decelerating trend to continue in 2021, when the economy is estimated to grow by 2.8 per cent. “Growth among the Central European economies slowed in 2018. Softening exports and labor shortages restrained growth in Bulgaria, Croatia, and Romania” the report shows

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Ukraine

Consumer price inflation (CPI) in Ukraine slowed to 9.8 per cent in December 2018. It’s down from 10 per cent in November 2018 – according to Ukrstat data.

As Interfax reports after the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), inflation rate has been falling steadily from its peak in 2015 (60 per cent). It is also down 13.7 per cent compared with the beginning of last year.

Inflation rates in the previous years were: 12.4 per cent in 2016, 43.3 per cent in 2015, and 24.9 per cent in 2014.

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Bulgaria

Bulgaria’s economic growth should increase from 3.5 per cent in 2018 to 3.9 per cent in 2019 on the back of moderate fiscal stimulus and acceleration of investment activity, Italian financial group UniCredit informs in quarterly macroeconomic report on Central and Eastern Europe.

“Among the planned measures, the boost in infrastructure spending and the increase in public sector wages are expected to be the most effective in supporting domestic demand in 2019” – the bank informed in its report.  Domestic consumption, which was the main driver of Bulgaria’s economic growth in 2018, is expected to let some steam off in 2019. Private consumption is expected to increase by 5.5 per cent in 2019, while public consumption is seen shrinking from 3.6 per cent in 2018 to 3.0 per cent in 2019. Bulgaria’s unemployment rate is expected to drop from 5.3 per cent last year to 5.0 per cent in 2019, while salary costs are expected to rise by 2.8 per cent in 2019.

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What’s up in indexes

BET (of Bucharest) decreased from 7,471.75 index points Wednesday, January 9th to 7390.85 index points Thursday, January 10th. It’s down 0.89 per cent d/d and down 8.02 per cent y/y.

BUX (of Budapest) increased from 40,784.00 index points Wednesday, January 9th to 40,796.00 index points Thursday, January 10th. It’s up 0.03 per cent d/d and up 2.89 per cent y/y.

CROBEX (of Zagreb) decreased from 1,741.36 index points Wednesday, January 9th to 1,740.16 index points Thursday, January 10th. It’s down 0.07 per cent d/d and down 4.04 per cent y/y.

OMXR (of Riga) increased from 956.42 index points Wednesday, January 9th to 961.75 index points Thursday, January 10th. It’s up 0.56 per cent d/d and down 6.71 per cent y/y.

OMXT (of Tallinn) decreased from 1,196.15 index points Wednesday, January 9th to 1,190.42 index points Thursday, January 10th. It’s down 0.48 per cent d/d and down 7.06 per cent y/y.

OMXV (of Vilnius) increased from 629.19 index points Wednesday, January 9th to 630.51 index points Thursday, January 10th. It’s up 0.21 per cent d/d and down 5.48 per cent y/y.

PX (of Prague) decreased from 1,018.05 index points Wednesday, January 9th to 1,015.70 index points Thursday, January 10th. It’s down 0.23 per cent d/d and down 7.81 per cent y/y.

SAX (of Bratislava) increased from 333.66 index points Wednesday, January 9th to 334.69 index points Thursday, January 10th. It’s up 0.31 per cent d/d and down 0.39 per cent y/y.

SOFIX (of Sofia) decreased from 572.10 index points Wednesday, January 9th to 571.10 index points Thursday, January 10th. It’s down 0.18 per cent d/d and down 18.17 per cent y/y.

UX (of Kyiv) closed at 1,710.65 index points Thursday, January 10th. It’s the same result as Wednesday’s. It’s 0 per cent change d/d and up 18.19 per cent y/y.

WIG20 (of Warsaw) decreased from 2,341.84 index points Wednesday, January 9th to 2,335.31 index points Thursday, January 10th. It’s down 0.28 per cent d/d and down 7.01 per cent y/y.

 

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