The World Bank expects the global GDP to grow by 2.9 per cent in 2019, which means a slight moderation towards the long-term average. There are many downside risks to this forecast, including a slowdown in the United States and in China.
Low fertility and increasing life expectancy in most of the world's economies are causing a decline in the natural interest rate. Too restrictive monetary policy may increase the risk of the economy falling into a deflationary trap.
It is difficult to provide an assessment of the changes taking place in emerging economies. Their share in the global economy has increased and their markets have become more heterogeneous, but many structural reforms have not been completed.