According to the latest NBP inflation report, economic growth will gradually accelerate without the risk of rising prices. This will allow interest rates to remain stable. The Ukrainian crisis will not impact negatively on the Polish economy, but invites thinking about a more solid anchoring in Europe – says Marek Belka, Governor of the Poland's central bank Narodowy Bank Polski.
GDP growth of 3.6 per cent this year and similar results in subsequent years, with low inflation and an improvement in the labor market – this is the scenario predicted in March 2014 by the NBP’s Economic Institute. We are also not in danger of seeing large capital outflows. However, a worsening of the crisis in the East may have repercussions.
The European Union’s new member states from Central and Eastern Europe are required to join the eurozone as part of their accession agreements. But deciding when to adopt the euro is a matter of heated debate. It is not just an economic calculation, but a judgment on the outlook of the single currency itself. For many, the benefits of membership have diminished since the financial crisis, and prospective members, especially Poland, can derive maximum advantage from joining only if they are also clear on what economic conditions must first prevail in their own countries.
According to a recent OECD report entitled “Entrepreneurship at a Glance 2013,” prosperity is difficult without massive, globally competitive companies. The statement is another pebble in Jan Krzysztof Bielecki’s rock garden. Three years ago he suggested building such enterprises in Poland. He is likely to continue to promote this idea.
We specialize in cheaper and lower quality products than Germany because that is our role in the supply chain of multinational corporations. As a result, our exports did not collapse during the crisis in Europe, however the scope for raising their value is limited – say Wojciech Mroczek and Marcin Grela, experts from the NBP Economic Institute.
Poland was ranked 50th in terms of economic freedom, up by 7 places, in a poll carried out by the Heritage Foundation and Wall Street Journal (WSJ). According to experts, until the country makes a spectacular leap forward then advancing by 7 places is nothing to get excited about. Investors, who analyze such rankings in much more detail than politicians, see flaws in the Heritage report.
Rarely do new ideas appear among concepts of how to return to speedy growth following economic crisis. Ideas that have already been tested garner the most references. A renewed hope is found in the notion that if the economy can’t fix itself, then the state should do so. And from there it is only a small step to a full return of the state to business.
In 2013, 50 foreign investors announced that they would be investing approximately 825 million euro in the Polish market. This is less than in 2012. Professor Saul Estrin from the London School of Economics maintains that larger investment incentives are unnecessary, and that foreign direct investment can also have negative consequences.
According to data published by Eurostat and the European Commission Poles are raising labour efficiency while the wage share in Poland’s GDP is among the lowest in the EU and continues to deteriorate. Yet, employers are reluctant to increase wages. For workers to feel wage growth similar to their productivity growth, there must be a stable tax system and more investment.