Today, at a meeting convened by the Polish President, Professor Jerzy Hausner shall present a report entitled “How to make headway in the world league?” According to its authors, the Polish economy is now at a turning point. We can either change the economy and stimulate its highly innovative sectors, or lose the competitive advantage of our low cost labour, and thus sacrifice the country’s economic growth.
The current decade will not be a golden one for Poland. There is a chance, though, the decade will not be lost. In the coming decade, Poland may grow at an average rate of 3% per year. This is less than in the past 20 years but a slowdown accompanying a growth in the wealth of a country is quite natural.
Macroprudential supervision is the copestone of the global financial safety that has emerged as a lesson learned from the crisis. Institutions responsible for carrying out macroprudential supervision have been established in many countries. Generally, this role is performed by central banks. Poland lags behind but the National Bank of Poland has developed a legislative proposal that would provide grounds for establishing macroprudential supervision in our country, too.
Government advertising campaigns tend to put people to sleep, but a startling exception is the ongoing campaign to boost investment in eastern Poland, with US economics commentator Matt Yglesias calling it the “The Greatest Economic Development Poster of All Time.”
“The new inflation projection shows that there is room for a safe decrease in interest rates, and so the Monetary Policy Council made a fairly radical cut. The Council had been moderate in its responses to the increase in inflation, whose sources were external. Inflation targeting strategy is about responding flexibly, not frantically,” said Professor Marek Belka, President of the NBP, in an interview for Financial Observer.
During the depths of the eurozone crisis just a few months ago, anyone suggesting that Poland ought to seriously start considering joining the euro would have been a candidate for a mental health check-up. But that is exactly what is happening, as Premier Donald Tusk and President Bronisław Komorowski kick off discussions on Poland's path to the common currency.
The discussion titled: “Poland’s competitiveness and economic growth” has launched a cycle of debates on opportunities and threats stemming from Poland’s entering the euro area, organized by the President of the Republic of Poland. The participants , who include officials responsible for the Polish economy in the former governments, have commonly indicated the same areas requiring urgent reforms: education, industrial policy, transport infrastructure, small enterprises sector, system of justice, cooperation between the state and the market. Below there are the most interesting opinions presented at the meeting.
The easing of the crisis suffered by the euro area for a few years reactivated the topic of our presence there. The awareness that without the euro adoption Poland would remain an insignificant EU player is increasing. The first dates of Poland's accession to the euro area are popping up, but these do not take into account the conditions we would have to meet to think about it at all. And before Poland’s EU accession becomes a fact, there are numerous preparations that are necessary.
The Conference Board, almost a hundred years old global business organisation, published its economic development projections several days ago. The projections say that between 2013 and 2018 Poland’s GDP growth rate would be 1.9%, and 1.5% between 2019 and 2025. The pessimistic option is that the growth would be ca. 1% a year, while optimists say it would be 2.7% and 2.0%.