The Conference Board, almost a hundred years old global business organisation, published its economic development projections several days ago. The projections say that between 2013 and 2018 Poland’s GDP growth rate would be 1.9%, and 1.5% between 2019 and 2025. The pessimistic option is that the growth would be ca. 1% a year, while optimists say it would be 2.7% and 2.0%.
MPC's last announcement makes it clear that the process of easing monetary policy has begun. We are witnessing an economic slowdown when it is difficult to keep the level of public debt in check. Our economy's sustainable development requires structural changes - says Professor Jerzy Hausner, a member of the MPC.
The finance minister believes that next year the European Union will decide to abrogate the excessive deficit procedure against Poland. This would give the government a free hand to implement reforms stimulating the economy. But Poland is at a distant position among 10 countries currently covered by the procedure and waiting for its abrogation.
Many countries, especially European ones, are tormented by the financial crisis that has been evolving since 2007, and the recession developing since the beginning of the year. An attempt to describe this situation using a single keyword is a far-reaching simplification as each of the phenomena gives rise to completely different threats, and consequently requires a different countermeasure.
The fast pace of technological change means that we are beginning to conceive of computers as capable of doing almost anything, from answering quiz questions to driving a car. Firms need to adapt their business models in order to fully exploit innovation. A natural question arises: what skill set will be required of the workers of the future?
The announcement of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s keynote address has spurred the Polish opposition into action. In early September, all opposition parties presented their ideas for the economy. They can hardly be called programmes, as they have the form of more or less haphazard proposals. Their common feature is a disregard for the economic situation in the region and for the declining power of the budget.
“The era of optimism dies in the crisis, but in dying it gives birth to an era of pessimism. This new era is born, not an infant, but a giant”. Both optimism and pessimism underpin the fluctuations of business cycles. This is what Wesley Mitchell, the father of research on business cycle wrote in 1927. Almost a century later, little has changed, which also applies to our country.
When Wayne D. Angell, who passed for the one of the Fed’s most vigorous inflation fighters, left the Fed in 1994, one of the American newspapers commented on his resignation – Angell leaves, the demon of inflation arrives. However, concerns that inflation would rise were not confirmed. In Poland, it may also be difficult to tell who is a true “hawk” and who is a “dove”.