In the coming years, the value of FDI in Poland is unlikely to return to the record levels observed before the financial crisis. More FDIs are made in services, which require less capital than investments in manufacturing.
According to the latest Eurostat data, hourly labor costs rose by 2.5 per cent in the Eurozone and by 2.7 per cent in the EU28 in the Q3’18 y/y. The corresponding numbers for the Q2’18 were 2.3 per cent and 2.7 per cent respectively.
The hidden public debt is important for the sustainability of public finances, both in Poland and in the world. The latest financial crisis and expanding a scope of state responsibilities have contributed to the global increase in this type of debt.
Most countries of Western Europe used various types of austerity programs aimed at reducing the budget deficit in order to get out of economic trouble. Professor Alberto Alesina, an economist from Harvard University, examined which of these measures worked best.
The lower inflow of foreign investments decreased the foreign value added in Polish exports. Given the nature of Poland's surplus in trade in services this trend may continue in the coming years and the share of domestic value added will grow.
According to the report of the European Commission's Ageing Working Group, the ratio of pension expenditures in relation to GDP in Poland will not change significantly between 2016 and 2050. However, the pension replacement rates will dramatically decrease.
The decrease of FDIs in the countries of the Central and Southeast Europe was accompanied by a recovery in the so-called greenfield investment. FDI inflow may increase but it will not return to the levels recorded before the global financial crisis.