The current decade will not be a golden one for Poland. There is a chance, though, the decade will not be lost. In the coming decade, Poland may grow at an average rate of 3% per year. This is less than in the past 20 years but a slowdown accompanying a growth in the wealth of a country is quite natural.
Macroprudential supervision is the copestone of the global financial safety that has emerged as a lesson learned from the crisis. Institutions responsible for carrying out macroprudential supervision have been established in many countries. Generally, this role is performed by central banks. Poland lags behind but the National Bank of Poland has developed a legislative proposal that would provide grounds for establishing macroprudential supervision in our country, too.
Government advertising campaigns tend to put people to sleep, but a startling exception is the ongoing campaign to boost investment in eastern Poland, with US economics commentator Matt Yglesias calling it the “The Greatest Economic Development Poster of All Time.”
“The new inflation projection shows that there is room for a safe decrease in interest rates, and so the Monetary Policy Council made a fairly radical cut. The Council had been moderate in its responses to the increase in inflation, whose sources were external. Inflation targeting strategy is about responding flexibly, not frantically,” said Professor Marek Belka, President of the NBP, in an interview for Financial Observer.
Anti-crisis regulations of the banking sector have a dark side. Bankers claim they can slow down growth due to reduced lending as well as force banks to transfer business from one country to another. And what will Poland do with regard to the proposed solutions? 'It will act in a cautious manner', said Marek Belka, governor of the National Bank of Poland at the Banking Forum.
Nicholas Spiro of Spiro Sovereign Strategy weighs his words carefully when asked for his assessment of the current bull market for Polish bonds. He steers clear of the word “bubble” but then settles on a less scary term “frothy”.
During the depths of the eurozone crisis just a few months ago, anyone suggesting that Poland ought to seriously start considering joining the euro would have been a candidate for a mental health check-up. But that is exactly what is happening, as Premier Donald Tusk and President Bronisław Komorowski kick off discussions on Poland's path to the common currency.
We have a huge layer cake from Brussels – more than PLN 300 billion. There are reasons for joy of successful negotiations. Yet, the rhetoric of the success of the battle for each euro cent should fast give way to reflections on how the funds will be used. Experts remind us that the growth of productivity in the economy is already zero, and EU funds are in fact social and not development expenditure.
In the latest World Bank’s Doing Business 2013 ranking, Poland came 55 among 185 countries ranked. A way behind, but we moved up the fastest among all countries – 7 spots, which was thanks to the work of the Ministry of Justice. In many other areas, we are still a way behind, among the 200ths.