Belarus’ government revises GDP growth forecast for 2019 downwards to 4.0%

The government has revised its GDP growth forecast for next year to 4.0% from 4.1%, the government news agency Belta has reported, citing EconMin Dmitry Krutoy. He said the government also revised its export projections downwards, and now expects that 75% of GDP growth next year will be at the expense of domestic demand. The revision was prompted by recent oil price dynamics and less optimism regarding growth in Russia. At the same time, the government hopes that service export growth will accelerate by 7.6% to USD9.7bn next year at the expense of transport, logistics and IT services, said Krutoy.

GDP grew by 2.4% last year, and the government’s forecast for this year is 3.5% growth. However, growth may be affected later this year and next year by complications with Moscow. Russian oil is likely to become more expensive for Belarus’s export-oriented refineries. Also, Russia has been delaying the allocation of loans to Belarus. President Aleksandr Lukashenko is going to discuss this at a meeting with Vladimir Putin in the near future.

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