Central bank of Poland: Consumer credit demand expected to grow in Q4’2015, propping up consumer demand

Poland will likely witness a significant growth in demand for consumer loans in Q4’2015, supporting consumer demand growth in the second half of the year, central bank NBP wrote in a report on households’ material conditions in Q2.

“In Q4 2015 a significant growth of [consumer credit] demand is expected, with no major changes in credit policy, so the share of quarterly change in consumer loan portfolio in private consumption will likely uphold growth trends in H2 2015,” the report reads.

Most high-frequency data from the economy indicate the possibility of maintaining consumer demand growth in H2 2015 “at a level close to the current rate,” the authors wrote.

Private consumption growth in H2 will nevertheless remain on lower levels than last year, as suggested by the observed “durable” lowering of retail sales growth rate, combined with subdued consumer optimism with regard to major purchase plans.

ami/ maf


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