CPI inflation accelerates strongly to 3.2% y/y in Estonia

CPI inflation accelerated strongly to 3.2% y/y in April, from 2.3% y/y in March, according to figures of the statistical office, published on Wednesday. The sharpest acceleration was marked by prices in the transport sector, where price growth picked up to 4.0% y/y, underpinned by higher prices of plane tickets, petrol and diesel fuel, in line with international oil prices. The second most tangible contribution was made by the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, which quickened to 3.6% y/y, mainly driven by more expensive vegetables, due to weather-damaged produce last year.

Looking ahead, we do not expect any further significant acceleration of price growth in the near term, given the high base from last year, in addition to slowing PPI inflation recorded in March. Still, consumer price growth will continue to be supported by rising wages and the price growth of services. To remind, the government expects average annual inflation at 2.6% in 2019, down from 3.4% on average in 2018.

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