CPI inflation edges down to 3.1% y/y in Estonia

CPI inflation edged down to 3.1% y/y in May, down from 3.2% y/y in April, according to figures of the statistical office, published on Friday. The slight deceleration was mainly driven by the transport sector, where price growth eased down notably to 2.6% y/y. In particular, plane tickets were tangibly cheaper, the stat office noted. In addition, food price growth also slowed down slightly to 3.3% y/y. On the other hand, the housing sector exerted some upward pressure on the headline index as price growth picked up to 5.9% y/y, mainly due to higher electricity prices.

Looking ahead, we do not expect any significant acceleration of price growth in the coming months, especially given the high reference base. Still, consumer price growth will continue to be underpinned by rising wages and growing service prices. To recall, the government expects average annual inflation at 2.6% in 2019, down from 3.4% on average in 2018.

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