In Ukraine shadow economy down 1pp y/y

The size of shadow economy was marginally down to 32% in January-September from 33% a year earlier, the EconMin has estimated in a quarterly report. This is unchanged from January-June and the lowest level in 10 years, said the EconMin. Judging by electricity consumption, shadow economy was down 1pp y/y to 22%; based on monetary statistics, it was unchanged at 27%; judging by household spending and retail sales, it was down 2pps to 49%; and judging by corporate losses, shadow economy was unchanged at 22% in January-September, according to EconMin calculations. Shadow economy peaked in Ukraine in 2014-2015, when Moscow invaded and economic crisis erupted. Since then, the shadow sector has been in steady decline, according to official statistics.

The EconMin attributed the continuing decline in the size of shadow economy to macroeconomic stabilization, positive economic trends, improved conditions for businesses and growing expectations, demonopolization, and growing demand. On the downside, areas in the east and south remained outside government control because of Moscow invasion.

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