National Bank of Ukraine affirms 12% inflation forecast for 2016

The NBU today affirmed its headline CPI inflation forecast for December at 12%, based on inflation figures for September. The headline CPI inflation equalled 7.9% y/y and 1.8% m/m in September, the Statistics Committee reported last week. The NBU said today inflation in September, although it accelerated, was somewhat lower than expected because core inflation fell to 6.3% y/y and raw food price inflation fell to 3.5%.

Administratively regulated tariffs were up 2.8% m/m in September, in line with expectations, said the NBU. In particular, electricity tariffs for households were up 27.8% y/y, and tobacco and alcohol prices continued to grow. Utility tariff growth is expected to accelerate in Q4, when higher heating bills are expected.

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