OECD cuts Russia’s 2019 GDP growth forecast to 1.4%

The OECD cut its 2019 GDP growth forecast for Russia to 1.4% from 1.5% previously, according to the new Economic Outlook report published on Wednesday. This is closer to the government’s 1.3% projection and also within the 1.2-1.7% range predicted by the CBR. For 2020 the OECD cut its forecast by 0.3pps to 1.5%, which is in the lower end of recent forecasts. The government counts on raising GDP growth above 3% after 2020 when the effect of the reform measures is felt, but we are skeptical this will be achieved. According to the World Bank growth will remain weak due to structural and demographic problems and improvement can be expected after 2028 due to the improvement in demographics.

 

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