Rosstat revises Q3 GDP growth up to 1.5% y/y

Rosstat revised Q3 GDP growth to 1.5% y/y in the supply-side breakdown, compared to 1.3% y/y in the flash estimate. The growth rates for Q1 and Q2 remained unchanged at 1.3% y/y and 1.9% y/y, respectively, leading to Jan-Sept growth of 1.6% y/y. The revision makes it more likely that the EcoMin’s target of 1.8% annual growth will be achieved. GDP growth is likely to pick up pace in Q4 mainly as a result of a lower base. According to the EconMin, GDP growth was 2.5% y/y in Jan-Oct pushing the ten-month growth to 1.7% y/y, but this estimate was made before the revision of Rosstat data.

The breakdown confirms the importance of agriculture, which shaved 0.4pps from GDP growth in Q3 due to a weaker grain harvest. The contribution of industry remained similar to Q2 at 0.5pps, but it shifted more in favor of extracting branches and away from manufacturing. The contribution of trade rose slightly to 0.3pps from 0.2pps in Q2 despite the observed weakening of retail sales in the monthly data. Other sectors show similar performance to Q2, the biggest difference being a lower contribution from budget-related sectors like state administration and defense.

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