Russia’s FinMin submits to government 2019 budget revision

The FinMin published Wednesday a proposed budget revision, which has been submitted to the government and is likely to be approved shortly. The main macro assumptions remain unchanged compared to the current budget, with the exception of the exchange rate where the ministry now expects a slightly weaker RUB. The oil price assumption was kept unchanged at USD63.4 despite higher prices in Jan-Apr as the ministry still sees significant likelihood of a decline in the second half of the year when the OPEC+ deal expires. Meantime, federal budget surplus to fall to 1.7% of GDP from 1.8% on account of lower oil&gas revenues. The GDP growth and inflation forecasts were also confirmed, while household demand is seen slightly weaker than before on account of lower real wage growth.

Share this post