Ukraine’s central bank’s production index jumps 12.3%

The Ukraine’s central bank, NBU production index growth accelerated to 12.3% y/y in October from 4.4% in September and 3.2% in August. The composite index for January-October was up 4.3% y/y, NBU has reported. As in August-September, growth in agriculture by 28.5% y/y, up from 11.4% in September, boosted the general index, on the back of the best grain harvest ever. We recall that GDP growth slowed to 2.8% y/y in Q3, according to preliminary estimates. Thanks to accelerated growth in agriculture, GDP growth is likely to pick up pace in Q4.

Domestic trade remained an important growth engine in October, as double-digit real wage growth continued. At the same time, retail trade growth slowed further to 5.0% y/y from 6.9% in September. Over January-October retail sales grew by 5.4% y/y, slower than last year, as consumer sentiment has been low. On the upside, manufacturing returned to growth, by 1.0% y/y after several months of decline, and over January-October manufacturing grew by 1.6% y/y. Construction also returned to growth, by 5.8% y/y in October and by 6.4% y/y in January-October, on the back of road mending.

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