Ukraine’s EconMin revises 2019 growth down to 2.8%

The EconMin has revised its GDP growth forecast for this year to 2.8% from 3.0%. It also estimated that GDP grew by 1.2% y/y in January-February. The EconMin left its 2020-2021 GDP growth projections unchanged at 3.8% and 4.1% respectively. IFIs are less upbeat. The IMF earlier this month predicted 2.7% growth this year and 3.0% next year, while the World Bank forecast respectively 2.7% and 3.4%. The central bank’s GDP growth forecast for this year has also been more conservative than the EconMin’s, 2.5%. Last year, GDP growth picked up to 3.3% from 2.5% in 2017.

The EconMin predicted that the national currency will gradually depreciate to USD/UAH28.2 this year, USD/UAH29.0 next year, and USD/UAH29.8 in 2021. Earlier the FinMin expected faster depreciation in 2020-2021. Thus far this year, the central bank’s offcial exchange rate has been close to USD/UAH27.

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