CSE and CIS
The economic sanctions are only a tertiary cause of Russia's trouble with economic growth. The recession is in full swing, but Vladimir Putin will not reform the economy – argues Sergei Guriev, former President of Moscow's New Economic School.
The decline in oil price and economic sanctions deepened the slowdown in Russia’s GDP lasting from 2011. Due to the lack of internal and external growth drivers, this time Russia is unlikely to return to a high-growth path over the next few years.
The Russian embargo on the Polish food imports will result in excess supply arising on the domestic food market. The lower demand in Russia will not be compensated by consumption in Poland. The goods exported to Russia belong to the group of goods the real consumption of which has been dropping in Poland in recent years.
Public-private partnership investment projects are still few and far between in Poland, and most tenders called for projects to be launched under this formula end up in a fiasco. Without incentive from the government and without some fairly uncomplicated changes to legislation, things are going to stay this way.
Despite very high global oil prices, Russia has entered a period of considerable economic slowdown. The possibility of continuing economic growth relying on natural resource-based export, with increasing involvement of the state, has worn out. Yet, Russia is unprepared for the new situation, it has no ideas for necessary changes and steering its economy out of the woods.
"Poland is in a very difficult situation in terms of its relations with neighbors, but all the disagreements between the country and its neighbors should not affect their economic relations. With only one exception: Russia. Money that comes from Russia has to be controlled and not every Russian investment should be allowed", Edward Lucas, a longtime correspondent from Central and Eastern Europe for The Economist, says.